'World's most lopsided treaty': Brahma Chellaney says Pakistan gets 80.52% of total waters, 100% of western rivers under IWT

Brahma Chellaney, a noted geostrategist, on Monday said the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was "the world's most lopsided and inequitable water-sharing treaty", under which Pakistan receives 80.52% of the total waters of the six-river Indus system — and nearly 100% of the western rivers.

"Some Indian media reports incorrectly state that Pakistan gets 80% of the waters of the western rivers (the Indus system's three main rivers)," Chellaney wrote on X. "As this chart from my book shows, Pakistan gets 80.52% of the total waters of the six-river Indus system — and almost 100% of the western rivers' waters. With the Indus system's smaller three rivers reserved for India, the latter's share is just 19.48% of the total waters."

In April this year, India suspended the treaty with Pakistan after terror strike in Pahalgam. The Ministry of External Affairs said the treaty will be held in abeyance until Pakistan credibly and irreversibly ends support for terrorism.

Signed in 1960, the treaty governs the distribution of six rivers — the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab (western rivers), and the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej (eastern rivers). India is allowed full use of the eastern rivers, with a combined average annual flow of 33 million acre feet (MAF). The western rivers, with a much larger flow of 135 MAF, are largely reserved for Pakistan. India is permitted limited use of these for domestic needs, agriculture, and hydroelectric power generation, within specific restrictions.

In an earlier statement backing the government's decision, Chellaney called the move “a long-overdue step to defend sovereignty and punish persistent betrayal.” He wrote: “When the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was signed in 1960, it was an act of extraordinary generosity on India's part. Despite being the upstream riparian state, India reserved for Pakistan over 80% of the Indus Basin waters."

"Almost 65 years later, IWT remains the world's most generous water-sharing treaty. Pakistan repaid India's generosity not with gratitude, but with grenades and guns,” he said, citing the 2001 Parliament attack, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the 2016 Uri raid, the 2019 Pulwama bombing, and the latest strike in Pahalgam. "This is not about water alone. It is about principle, sovereignty and the right to protect one's people,” he added. 

Chellaney said that when a treaty's foundational conditions collapse, the affected party has the right under international law to suspend or withdraw. "A country that repeatedly enables attacks on innocent civilians should forfeit the benefits of a legal arrangement designed for peaceful cooperation. The IWT is not a river-sharing agreement in isolation; it is a mechanism of trust, and trust has been systemically dismantled."

Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Satish Chandra also endorsed the decision, calling it a “Brahmastra” that could cause long-term disruption in Pakistan. "They (Pakistan) are a water-scarce country. And if what we have done is taken to extreme limits it will cause extreme pain even disruption in Pakistan," Chandra told StratNewsGlobal. 

The former envoy said that this treaty was badly drafted and overly generous to Pakistan. "India has 40% roughly of the catchment area of the Indus basin. But under the treaty, we are providing Pakistan with as much as 80% of the water. And keeping only 20% for ourselves."