'Privatisation of Hindustan Copper will change the game': Vedanta's Anil Agarwal as IEA warns of 30% copper shortfall

Vedanta Group Chairman Anil Agarwal on Monday warned of a looming global copper crunch, backing privatisation of Hindustan Copper as a strategic imperative to address India's rising import dependence.

"In ten years, by 2035, global copper demand will be 30% higher than copper supply," he said. "Copper is the most critical of all metals given its intensive use in manufacturing particularly in cutting-edge sectors like EVs, renewables infrastructure and AI data centers. India is already heavily import dependent. Privatisation of Hindustan Copper with no retrenchment will change the game."

Agarwal shared a chart from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that projects a sharp shortfall in copper supply over the next decade. Based on existing and announced mining projects, global supply is expected to fall 30% short of projected demand by 2035.

The IEA warns that demand for copper — essential for every form of electric energy infrastructure — will outstrip supply unless urgent action is taken. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, said, “This will be a major challenge. It’s time to sound the alarm.” He called on developed nations to take on more responsibility for refining key minerals and to form new partnerships with resource-rich developing countries.

China currently dominates mineral processing, refining more than 70% of the world's top 20 energy-critical minerals, according to IEA data. While these minerals — including cobalt, gallium, lithium, and manganese — are mined in regions like Africa, Australia, and Latin America, the bulk of refining happens in China.

India's vulnerability in this space has grown sharply in recent years. The closure of Vedanta's Sterlite Copper plant in Thoothukudi in May 2018 transformed India from a copper exporter to an importer in less than two years. Once among the world's top five copper cathode exporters, India exported nearly 378 kilotonnes in 2017–18. But exports dropped to 48 kilotonnes in 2018–19 and just 7 kilotonnes in the first half of 2019–20, following the plant's shutdown after state government orders amid protests over health concerns.

The Sterlite unit had a refining capacity of 400 kilotonnes — a figure almost equal to India's annual exports at the time. Since then, India's import bill for copper has continued to rise, exposing domestic industries to external supply shocks and price volatility.

Hindustan Copper is a central public sector enterprise under the Ministry of Mines. This PSU is the only vertically integrated copper producer in the country, involved in mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining, and casting of refined copper. The central government currently holds a majority stake in the company and has been considering strategic disinvestment as part of its broader privatisation drive.